
Again, just the top 10 picks. A recap of my predictions from last year:
1. Derrick Rose to the Bulls. Yup, and he had a rookie season befitting an eventual legend.
2. Michael Beasley to the Heat. Yup, though he didn”t go to the Bulls, and he showed promise but was inconsistent. He put up decent numbers but played smaller than I anticipated. Which might be fine… but the league has plenty of great 3s, not so many solid 4s.
3. Brook Lopez to the Wolves. Nope, fell to the Nets at 10th. But he had a great first campaign, finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting.
4. O.J. Mayo to the Sonics, uh, Thunder. He went third and was traded to the Grizzlies. Was second in Rookie of the Year voting, put up 18, 4 and 3 in heavy minutes. Solid.
5. I had the Grizzlies trading the pick to the Clippers, who’d take Jerryd Bayless. Instead Memphis took Kevin Love and traded him and parts for Mayo and parts. Bayless went 11th, to the Pacers, and was traded to the Blazers. He’s probably a year or two from contributing much. Love did well with the Wolves but probably won’t get much better. Not a bad pick, though — better than I thought he’d be.
6. Russell Westbrook to the Knicks. He went fourth, to the Thunder, and is part of a promising core with Kevin Durant and Jeff Green. Very solid pick. The Knicks took Danilo Gallinari, who was hurt most of the year but didn’t show all that much when he was healthy.
7. Joe Alexander to the Clippers. He went eighth, to the Bucks, and was a bust. He wasn’t too hot when he started at West Virginia, though, and he’s apparently working hard to make a big leap in his second year. The Clippers took Eric Gordon, who’s an explosive guard like Jerryd Bayless, except Gordon had a very nice rookie year. His main weakness is that he plays for the Clippers.
8. Eric Gordon to the Bucks. See above. I’m sure Milwaukee would rather have taken Gordon.
9. Donté Greene to the Bobcats. Instead, it was D.J. Augustine, who I thought wouldn’t go so high. Greene went at #28 and ended up with the Kings, for whom he had little impact. But he did prevent a potential drowning on Memorial Day. Augustine, meanwhile, was decent in his rookie year, averaging 12 points per game in 26 minutes. Props to Michael Jordan, who seems to have an affinity for small point guards (Felton, Raymond; Singletary, Sean).
10. Danilo Gallinari to the Nets. See above. This was the Brook Lopez pick, probably the best value of the Top 10 other than Rose.
For 2009:
1. Los Angeles Clippers — Blake Griffin, Oklahoma, forward. It’s already been said, so this isn’t much of a prediction. I have no idea how Griffin will do as a pro. The only skill I’m sure will show is rebounding, which isn’t a bad one. And he’ll have more than his share of dunks. The questions are whether his low-post game will be beyond rudimentary, whether he’ll have any kind of jump shot, and whether he’ll play defense.
2. Memphis Grizzlies — Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut, center. Really, the Clippers should be after Thabeet. I have the same uncertainty about his development as with Griffin, but Thabeet is a legit 7′3″, 270. I don’t think you turn down that kind of size with Thabeet’s upside. He might not impress in year one but he’ll be a cornerstone for a decade. Mark my words.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder — Jonny Flynn, Syracuse, guard. This may seem high for Flynn, but I think he’s a good fit for the Thunder, a young team that can play fast AND that doesn’t need him to be steady right away. He’s probably a year or two from having an ideal outside shot and game-management ability. But I’m more sold on his development than, say, Tyreke Evans’.
4. Sacramento Kings — Brandon Jennings, Italy, guard. I’m not sold on Ricky Rubio, the Spaniard who’s been getting all kinds of hype. Meantime Jennings, IMHO, would be challenging for the #1 pick if he waited another year before returning from Europe.
5. Washington Wizards — Jordan Hill, Arizona, forward. They should take DeJuan Blair, out of Pitt. But they’ll take Hill. They need a young big man who can rebound. So why do I think Blair will eat up more space and be more productive than Hill? ‘Cause he’s a beast. Hill is an athlete with potential. Reminds me of Michael Olowokandi. I wouldn’t mind if the Wizards considered James Johnson, from Wake Forest.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves — Stephen Curry, Davidson, guard. I think Curry’s a bit overrated as a high draft pick, though he’ll last a long time ’cause he’s got a great shot. But the Wolves are actually a great fit for him.
7. Golden State Warriors — Ricky Rubio, Spain, guard. Dude plays with flair and has some legit skills. And he’s still young. But he’s got a weak body and he’s slow. He will put fannies in seats, though, at least for a year or so.
8. New York Knicks — James Harden, Arizona State, guard. I’ve never seen him play. But he’s touted as crafty and productive, which is good for any team.
9. Toronto Raptors — DeMar DeRozan, Southern Cal, guard. Potential, athleticism. Won’t help much in the first year.
10. Milwaukee Bucks — Jeff Teague, Wake Forest, guard. He brings some swagger but he’s a bit erratic too. The Bucks have an ugly roster and could use a point who can push.